Goldman Sachs FOMC recap: "A pause is the baseline"

Goldman Sachs Economics on Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

On recession risk:

• Powell said that he does not expect a recession, unlike the Fed The Fed "The Fed" is a short-hand that refers to the Federal Reserve or Federal Reserve System, the central banking system of the United States. Traders often discuss the actions of the Fed, primarily interest rate decisions, as they significantly impact all financial markets.The Fed shouldn't be confused or substituted with the term "the Feds" and doing so tells everyone you're a total noob. The term "the Feds" refers to US Federal law enforcement, including such agencies as the FBI (Federal Bureau of "The Fed" is a short-hand that refers to the Federal Reserve or Federal Reserve System, the central banking system of the United States. Traders often discuss the actions of the Fed, primarily interest rate decisions, as they significantly impact all financial markets.The Fed shouldn't be confused or substituted with the term "the Feds" and doing so tells everyone you're a total noob. The term "the Feds" refers to US Federal law enforcement, including such agencies as the FBI (Federal Bureau of Read this Term staff, and he made his clearest statement so far that he thinks a soft landing is possible and finds the labor market rebalancing to date encouraging, views that we share.
• We see this as dovish too—if Powell thinks that a recession is not necessary to solve the inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term problem, he will be reluctant to deliver future hikes that he thinks would materially raise the risk of pushing the economy into a recession.

And, expanding on policy implications:

• The nod toward a June pause was not quite as strong as we had expected
• Chair Powell emphasized twice that [the removal of earlier guidance] is a ‘meaningful change.’
• GS conclude:
• supportive of our call for a pause in June