This summary of a Goldman Sachs note is via the folks at eFX.
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USD/JPY's Abrupt Movements:
From the end of July, there has been a gradual weakening of the JPY against the USD. However, the trajectory witnessed a sudden twist on October 3 post 11pm JST. After nudging the 150 mark, there was an almost instantaneous retraction to the 147 handle.
- This abrupt movement was short-lived, with the rate swiftly reverting to the vicinity of 149 within a few minutes.
The Enigma of Possible Intervention:
- Clarification regarding potential interventions remains elusive as neither the Ministry of Finance in Japan nor the New York Fed have shed light on the matter.
- Contextualizing this with past events, the Japanese authorities notably stepped in to buttress the yen when the USD/JPY touched the 150 level on October 21, 2022. This historical precedent has sowed caution within market circles, prompting them to view the 150 handle as a potentially sensitive intervention (or warning) threshold.
Closing Thoughts:
- Goldman Sachs accentuates the market's sensitivity towards the 150 level in the USD/JPY pair. Given past interventions, market participants are on high alert, interpreting this threshold as a potential intervention cue. It remains imperative to keep tabs on official responses, as they could significantly shape the currency pair's dynamics moving forward.
ICYMI:
