The data is linked from here:
The jobs report came in super-string, smashing above even the highest estimates:
- US non-farm payrolls data due imminently - the critical key ranges for estimates to watch
- What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
(as a ps. if you aren't reading such posts from Giuseppe and I prior to significant US economic releases you are going in blind)
I already posted a few responses:
And, if you hadn't seen it, Goldman Sachs on their expectations for the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (a 25 bp rate cut):
BOTTOM LINE: Nonfarm payrolls rose 254k in September, well above expectations. Payroll growth was revised up by 17k in August to 159k and by 55k in July to 144k. The industry composition of job creation was stronger than last month, although the leisure and hospitality, healthcare, and government sectors accounted for 70% of today's net job gains. The payrolls diffusion index rose 5.8pt to 57.6 and is now around its pre-pandemic level. The unemployment rate declined by 17bp to 4.05%, reflecting a 430k gain in household employment and an unchanged labor force participation rate. Our estimate of the underlying pace of job growth based on the payroll and household surveys now stands at 196k after adjusting for the undercounting of immigration in the official statistics. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.37% month-over-month in September, above expectations, and our estimate of the underlying pace of average hourly earnings growth stands at +3.9%.
We continue to expect 25bp cuts at the November and December meetings, and we believe today's report makes a 50bp cut in November less likely.
