The us jobs report is due at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1230 GMT) on Friday, September 6, 2024. The focus on this is intense ahead of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. It's a bit of a toss up right now for a 25bp oir 50bp rate cut.
Earlier:
What would it take from non-farm payrolls to get a 50 basis point cut?
Goldman Sachs have also weighed in, analysts at the back say to watch the jobless rate. GS outline two scenarios that will prompt a 50bp rate cut:
- If the unemployment rate is 4.30% or higher GS expect a 50bp FOMC rate cut on September 18
- if its 4.19% or lower GS expect a 25bp rate cut, as long as the headline payroll number is positive
- if its between 4.20 to 4.29% GS expect a 25bp rate cut if the headline payroll number is > 150K, and a 50bp cut if the headline is < 150K
I posted this earlier, the u/e rate expectations are clustered on 4.2%:
