Goldman Sachs (in brief)
- We expect the Governing Council to hike policy rates by 25 bps and provide additional details of its sovereign backstop.
- Although the sharp depreciation of the euro, recent central bank actions abroad and the chance of a further rise in survey inflation expectations suggest that a 50 bps move is possible, we believe that a quarter-point increase remains likely.
- This is because the Council has strongly guided towards 25 bps, the growth outlook has weakened and the ECB has historically not delivered hikes that were less than 70% discounted.
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The European Central Bank on Thursday 21 July 2022
- announcement is due at 1215 GMT (note the new scheduled times)
- press conference follows at 1245 GMT
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Earlier:
- ECB policymakers reportedly to discuss 50 bps rate hike this week
- Preview of the ECB monetary policy (rate hike) meeting coming up on Thursday 21 July
- ECB to signal end of an era this week; Expect 25bp but more is not unthinkable - BofA
- Newsquawk Week Ahead - Highlights: ECB, BoJ, UK/CA/NZ inflation data, UK debates
