Goldman Sachs have raised their economic growth forecast for the US in 2024:
- to 2.3% from 2.1% previously
- GS says they see a much lower risk of recession compared with other analysts
Goldman Sachs's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) outlook:
- see the first Fed funds rate cute at the March meeting this year
- see a total of five cuts in 2024 (Fed Funds are currently 5.25% to 5.5%, five 25 bp cuts would bring them to 4% to 4.25%)
- "The Fed will start cutting the funds rate soon, most likely in March. After all, Chair Powell said at the December 13 press conference that the committee would want to cut 'well before' inflation falls to 2%," Goldman economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a research note.
- "However, we expect 'only' five cuts this year, below the six-to-seven cuts now discounted in market pricing, and we view the chance of 50 basis points steps as low."
