Goldman Sachs see bearish USD/JPY factors but remain unconvinced it'll drop significantly

Last week I posted from Goldman Sachs:

• the current market environment looks less favorable for significant dollar-yen downside

An update from GS now:

• over the past couple of weeks, the JPY has underperformed most other major currencies even as equities have sold-off, illustrating our empirical finding that USD/JPY typically rallies when U.S. real yields are rising, with the broader risk backdrop taking a back seat

GS mention a bullish factor for yen:

• speculation around a surprise policy adjustment at Governor Kuroda's last meeting in March has increased, despite Professor Ueda having so far suggested support for the current policy stance, including most recently at his testimony to the lower house
• such speculation combined with elevated recession concerns should keep any JPY JPY The Japanese yen (JPY) is the official currency of Japan and at the time of writing is the third most-traded currency in the world behind only the US dollar and euro.The JPY is used extensively as a reserve currency and is relied upon by forex traders as a safe haven currency.Originally implemented in 1871, the JPY has had a long history and has survived multiple world wars and other events. This was followed by the creation of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 1882 and the full oversight of the JPY by The Japanese yen (JPY) is the official currency of Japan and at the time of writing is the third most-traded currency in the world behind only the US dollar and euro.The JPY is used extensively as a reserve currency and is relied upon by forex traders as a safe haven currency.Originally implemented in 1871, the JPY has had a long history and has survived multiple world wars and other events. This was followed by the creation of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 1882 and the full oversight of the JPY by Read this Term underperformance somewhat limited

But GS is not convinced on yen strength:

• but we have repeatedly said that US real rates should matter most, and thus the current market environment looks less favorable for significant USD/JPY downside, even in the case of a hawkish BoJ BOJ The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is the central bank of Japan. It was established in 1882 and is headquartered in Tokyo.The BOJ's main responsibilities include issuing and managing the country's currency, implementing monetary policy, and ensuring the stability of the financial system. It also acts as a lender of last resort to banks during times of financial crisis. The BOJ sets the interest rate of the country and sets an inflation target, aiming to achieve 2% inflation.The BoO has a long history, with The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is the central bank of Japan. It was established in 1882 and is headquartered in Tokyo.The BOJ's main responsibilities include issuing and managing the country's currency, implementing monetary policy, and ensuring the stability of the financial system. It also acts as a lender of last resort to banks during times of financial crisis. The BOJ sets the interest rate of the country and sets an inflation target, aiming to achieve 2% inflation.The BoO has a long history, with Read this Term policy shift