Via a research note from HSBC on the yuan:
- expect daily USD/CNY fixing to slowly drift higher
- which will see spot also trending upwards
- don't expect the move up to quick (HSBC say not like August last year when USD/CNY jumped nearly 700 points in 8 days)
- says the gradual increase of the reference rate is likely to be accompanied by measures such as verbal intervention to slow and smooth the movements in spot
I put an arrow to the jump back in August 2023, but there are other examples on this chart also (and of rapid moves the other way)
