Yesterday we got the Reserve Bank of Australia March meeting minutes. This meeting was held back on March 7, and the minutes were clear:
- Members agreed to reconsider the case for a pause at the (April meeting), recognising that pausing would allow additional time to reassess the outlook for the economy. At what point it will be appropriate to pause will be determined by the data and the Board’s assessment of the outlook.
This was well before authorities in the US took control of failed bank SVB (March 10).
I posted yesterday that an April pause from the RBA seems almost baked in:
Westpac were already forecasting an April pause:
And they've reiterated that forecast following the minutes yesterday:
- We expect that the case for a pause in April is supported in these Minutes
- Westpac has been forecasting a pause at the April meeting – the strong emphasis on uncertainty in the March Minutes; the unusual commitment to consider a pause in April; and developments in market pricing and global financial markets all support that view.
Further out, WPAC see a rate hike in May:
- But the Minutes continue to make a strong case for the need to reign in the “too high” inflation. This challenge is likely to be just as apparent at the May meeting, when much more information will be available on the inflation challenge, requiring a “final” 25 basis point tightening.
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Watch April 26 for the next quarterly CPI update from Australia:
You'll note from that pic above that the March monthly CPI is released at the same time on April 26. It's the quarterly data that is viewed as more reliable. As a ps. We get February monthly CPI on March 29.
