Implied odds of a 100 bps FOMC hike near 50/50

There's a bit of a blowout in the Fed fund futures Futures Futures or a futures contract represents a legal agreement to buy or sell a security or asset at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Of note, the parties are not known to each other.These transactions usually involve commodities or other securities involving the buying and selling for a forward or predetermined price.Futures also adhere to a delivery date, which specifies the date of delivery and payment. Relative to other forms of investing futures are much more complex, as Futures or a futures contract represents a legal agreement to buy or sell a security or asset at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Of note, the parties are not known to each other.These transactions usually involve commodities or other securities involving the buying and selling for a forward or predetermined price.Futures also adhere to a delivery date, which specifies the date of delivery and payment. Relative to other forms of investing futures are much more complex, as Read this Term market at the moment. I don't rule out that's traders caught offside and getting squeezed. In any case, the implied probabilty of a 100 basis points hike to 3.25-3.50% is stting at 47% now. That's a big shift from essentially nil before CPI.

I expect the Fed to leak something to the WSJ sometime soon but they may want to wait and see Thursday's retail sales and Friday's UMich sentiment survey first.

Update: The odds are back down to 33%. It looks like that was a bit of a squeeze.