This is via the folks at eFX.
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- "EUR/USD has given up back its gains partially in the last two weeks as rate differentials have moved against it, but it would be premature to focus only on the Fed and ignore the ECB. EUR/USD fair value on short term models ranges between 1.07-1.09 depending on the variables used," JPM notes.
- "Both central banks have meetings in March and it's not just the Fed terminal pricing that is being re-assessed; the ECB is in play as well with data continuing to beat expectations, inflation also firmer than expected, peripheral spreads tight and gas prices low. Investors looking to position for EUR strength pre-ECB are better off doing it vs. currencies within the euro bloc where the central bank is not in play in the near term, rather than vs. USD with the Fed in play as well," JPM adds.
