Lagarde
- There is no pre-determined path for September
- Sept projections plus other data will be taken into account
- Decision today was unanimous
- Surveys indicate wage growth will decline in 2025 and 2026
- Various wage measures point in the direction of rather elevated levels
- We're data dependent, not data-point dependent
- We will stay in restrictive territory as long as is necessary
- We must look at all components of data in the next weeks and months, this is going to be a process
- It's clear between now and Sept, we will be receiving a lot of information
- The inflation target won't be debated on my watch
The euro is edging down, though rate cut probabilities haven't moved. The euro is sagging during the press conference but she hasn't exactly been dovish.
Some are pointing to the comment about the growth outlook being tilted to the downside as a reason for euro softness. The main line of thinking is that they will cut in September so long as inflation doesn't surprise higher.
