- Inflation has converged toward 2% for six projections in a row, at some point in the course of 2025
- Past shocks have pushed inflation down
- Productivity we are seeing more-promising signs
- We have not discussed neutral rate level in meeting
- I don't think about market pricing of rate hikes
- Risk to inflation is now two-sided
- The direction of travel (on rates) is currently clear, the pace is uncertain
- A lot of ground has been covered, we have already cut by 100 bps
- Tariffs are not incorporated into ECB projections
- Variations in the exchange rate have an impact on inflation and we will be attentive to that
- We will debate neutral rate in due course
There wasn't much here to mull, the market is full priced for another 25 bps in January.
