More from Chicago Fed president Charlie Evans:
- Looking at composition of inflation , can take note of some positive developments if they continue
- Still too early to think the inflation challenges we are facing now are changing, but they could be
- If the Fed were to do a couple of 50 basis point increases, could get to 2.25% – 2.5% neutral rate by end of year
- If we don't see inflation coming down, we are going to raise rates above the neutral level
- if we do see inflation coming down then neutral rate could be about right.
- If inflation rate accelerated, that would be a cause of great concern
- my expectations is that will need to raise rates above neutral
- It is a bit too close glib to say we want the balance sheet to be on autopilot
- when we set the monthly cap of $95 billion run off, we will watch it but not adjust it to manage the policy
- Fed funds rate will be main tool for monetary policy
- If we get to 2.25% to 2.5% by December, we will be able to look at where inflation is
Meanwhile, the US stock market is reacting positively today. Crude oil prices are sharply lower. US yields are higher but they are also off their highest levels. The 30 year yield reach day high of 3.016%. It is currently trading at 2.977%. The 10 year yield reached 2.928% and is currently trading at 2.893%.
After the close, Netflix will report earnings. IBM will also report. Tomorrow Tesla is on the schedule to report their earnings after the close.