• Inflation to remain a bit bumpy due to energy.
  • We expect wage growth remains highest year and rather bumpy
  • Data today is the first indication that we have reached a turning point.
  • Relatively strong consumption data in Germany and France give some hope for a turnaround
  • Geopolitical risks have increased significantly.
  • Major worry is protectionism, in light of US election.
  • Expect more frequent supply-side shocks, which will have impact on inflation.

Looking at the economic data released earlier today:

  • German Prelim CPI m/m

    • Actual: 0.4% (BEAT Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.0%)

  • French Consumer Spending m/m

    • Actual: 0.1% (MET Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.4%)

  • French Flash GDP q/q

    • Actual: 0.4% (BEAT Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.2%)

  • Spanish Flash CPI y/y

    • Actual: 1.8% (BEAT Forecast: 1.7%, Previous: 1.5%)

  • Spanish Flash GDP q/q

    • Actual: 0.8% (BEAT Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: 0.8%)

  • German Unemployment Change

    • Actual: 27K (MISSED Forecast: 15K, Previous: 19K)

  • Italian Prelim GDP q/q

    • Actual: 0.0% (MISSED Forecast: 0.2%,Previous: 0.2%)

  • German Prelim GDP q/q

    • Actual: 0.2% (BEAT Forecast: -0.1%, Previous: -0.3%)

  • EU Prelim Flash GDP q/q

    • Actual: 0.4% (BEAT Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.2%)