- Bank stresses have stabilized
- Fed has tools for monetary policy, financial stability and they don't compete with each other
- Expects inflation to end 2023 a little above 3%
- Inflation expectations are anchored, allowing us to take a couple of years to bring down inflation
- Policy tightening is at a point now where we don't expect to continue to raise rates every meeting
- There is a sense we will get rates up to a level and stay
- Does not want to forecast the end of a tightening cycle
- Inflation report today was good news
- Will look in CPI inflation to see if core services ex housing are coming down
The shelter costs within the inflation report today showed a gain of 0.6%.
- Services ex shelter came in unchanged at 0.0%
- Core services ex shelter were still up +0.4% vs +0.43% prior
The core services ex shelter were still up 0.4% versus 0.43% prior, but the services ex shelter were unchanged. The Fed is taking a stance that inflation needs to be slain from all angles. It is not just goods, it is services. Then it is not just services, it is core services ex shelter. That measure was near unchanged on the month at 0.4%.
I also get the feeling the Fed does not want to see stock prices rising.
More headlines:
- There's a lot of uncertainty about how long it takes for rate hike's to impact the economy
- There's a lot more in the pipeline of monetary policy tightening
- When credit conditions tighten, it puts brakes on the economy so fed doesn't have to tighten more. Bank lending will contract.
- Most likely there will be no recession
- We do need to slow the economy to get back into balance
- Does not see a pattern forming yet where bank lending is contracting