Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George

More from Fed's George as she speaks to the New York Economic Club:

  • Sees the neutral rate at around 2.5% as a starting point
  • Future of commercial real estate given doubts about back to work policies are an issue on the watchlist

Most Fed officials are seeing the neutral rate as 2.5%. The question is if the Fed wants to get the right back to the initial rate, how do they do it? The current target range was raised from 0% -0.25%, to 0.25% - 0.50%. Since then the expectations have been ratcheted higher. The two year yield is now at 2.326% which is within shouting distance of the 2.5% neutral rate target. However, with inflation well above that level the real rate is still quite negative.