- We are seeing some improvements in inflation data
- CPI and core CPI and PPI fell but would be cautious about reading too much into one month of data
- global supply chains have improved helping the goods price inflation
- service inflation has not yet slowed
- rent increases have slowed in recent months in multiunit developments will help on the supply front in housing
- services prices may prove to be a persistent factor keeping inflation higher
- growth in labor costs remain well above pre-pandemic rates
- growth in labor productivity has been lackluster in the US economy and around the world
- productivity growth is disappointing
- recent decline in productivity is an artifact of the pandemic. Consumers shifted from low productivity services to high permittivity goods during the pandemic. That is reversing now
- inflation is tied to productivity
- if there is a productivity revival it would likely be driven by manufacturing
