The data from NZ earlier is here:
Via ANZ New Zealand, their take (in summary):
- The New Zealand economy contracted 0.2% q/q in Q2 on a seasonally adjusted basis ... above the RBNZ’s forecast of -0.5% q/q.
- Despite an upward surprise for the RBNZ, overall economic momentum remains very weak, consistent with ongoing disinflation and gradual OCR cuts.
- Overall, we don’t see these data as a game changer for the monetary policy outlook. We continue to expect the RBNZ to deliver 25bp cuts at each meeting, allowing time to assess the economy’s responsiveness to easing.
- Financial markets had been attributing more than 50% odds of a 50bp cut by the RBNZ as soon as October. We’ve always felt the market was getting ahead of itself, and today’s better-than-feared outturn vs the RBNZ’s forecastshould pour some cold water on the idea of outsized cuts (at least in the near term).
ANZ summary:
