New Zealand January - March quarter inflation data is due on Thursday at 10.45am New Zealand time.
This is Wednesday 19 April at 2245 GMT and 6.45pm US Eastern time
Via ANZ, their preview (this is in summary from a longer piece):
- We expect annual CPI inflation to remain steady at 7.2% in Q1 2023, a touch below the RBNZ’s February MPS forecast of 7.3%.
- Underpinning that is an expectation that annual non-tradables inflation (aka domestic inflation) will accelerate from 6.6% in Q4 to 6.8%, and annual tradables inflation will slow from 8.2% to 7.4%.
- If our expectation is correct, annual non-tradable inflation will come in 0.3%pts below the RBNZ’s February MPS forecast. However, we’re not convinced a ‘miss’ this size will have much bearing on the RBNZ’s broader strategy. Markets may disagree with this assessment on the day, but the RBNZ did signal a potential upgrade to their inflation outlook in the April Monetary Policy Review, owing to larger cyclone impacts and the potential for further fiscal expansion.
- Our forecast is for a follow-up 25bp OCR hike at the May MPS, taking the OCR to 5.5%, which appears to be the Committee’s ‘happy place’, where they can ‘watch, worry and wait’.
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The next Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting is on 24 May (New Zealand time).
