The data is due at 10.45am New Zealand time:
- 2245 GMT
- 6.45pm US Eastern time
BNZ snippet preview of the data:
- For the Q2 CPI release, the consensus sees inflation again coming in under RBNZ estimates, at 0.9% q/q and 5.9% y/y.
- The data should reinforce the view that both headline and underlying inflation are heading lower, supporting the RBNZ’s on-hold stance.
And, from ANZ, again in brief:
- The June quarter CPI figures are released next Wednesday. We expect annual inflation to decline to 5.9% in Q2 2023, below the RBNZ’s May MPS forecast of 6.1%.
- Services inflation is where to look for the impact of wage growth, given the services sector is relatively labour-intensive. Like non-tradables, services inflation was still accelerating in Q1. We’ll be looking for a turning point in this measure in Q2, and also a broad moderation in key core measures of inflation, to give us confidence that underlying inflation has passed its peak.
- All up, the Q2 CPI release is expected to show things moving in the right direction. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the RBNZ has done enough to get on top of medium-term sticky domestic inflation risks. It’s very unlikely these data will give the RBNZ enough of a signal to challenge their watch, worry, and wait strategy, but the market may well disagree with that assessment on the day
