Market pricing for the RBNZ in April shows around a 75% probability for a 50bp rate hike.
This (brief) update via New Zealand's BNZ:
- Our current forecast for the OCR is for a long series of consecutive 25 basis point moves through to a peak of 2.75% by February 2023
- although we recognise that, with inflation so elevated and the unemployment rate so low, the decision on whether to hike by 25bps or 50bps in the near term is a finely balanced one.
- the market already ascribes a high chance to back-to-back 50bps hikes
BNZ referring to " back-to-back" hikes is at the April then May meetings, shown below (April 16, May 25):
