Via Reuters, the results of their latest poll on what is expected from the European Central Bank.
- all 75 analysts surveyed expect a July +25bp rate hike (the meeting is July 27)
- just over half of those surveyed also expect a September rate hike from the Bank
- 35 of 75 predict no more hikes, 40 see another 25 basis point rise in September
"July is pretty much a given, they've communicated they will hike and it's not going to be a surprise to anyone. The question is whether they will have to hike in September or not," said Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank. "For the next meeting, communication is going to be the most difficult part...a hold or a hike, they will probably keep it open. It is going to be a close call either way."
