Poll shows most analysts expect a +75bp rate hike from the RBNZ next week

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on November 23 (local time). The current cash rate is 3.5%.

Reuters polling shows:

• • 15 or 23 surveyed expect the Bank to raise its key rate 75 bps to 4.25%
  • 8 said 50 bps
  • a majority expect to see the rate to 4.75% by end-March

  The main points the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is looking at:

• inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term in NZ is at 7.20%, well above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) target range of 1-3%
• The jobs market is tight

Comments from the Reuters report:

• "To mash up the words of an American philosopher: when inflation's out the band, Gov, hike it like it's hot. Inflation pressures have appeared to heat up...to the point that we and most forecasters expect the RBNZ will step up the pace of hikes to a 75 bp move on Wednesday," said Nick Tuffley, chief economist at ASB. Tuffley added part of the reason for stepping up the pace now is that the RBNZ's next policy decision is not due for another three months.
• ANZ, ASB, Kiwi Bank, Bank of New Zealand and Westpac - expect a 75 bp hike on Wednesday
• "The RBNZ has already proven that it's not in the least afraid to go its own way, and the global tilt towards slower hikes is unlikely to play a significant part in the decision," noted Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ. "We are forecasting the OCR to peak at 5.0%, via another 75 bp hike in February on a 'let's just get it done' basis. If data cools more rapidly than expected the RBNZ could well slow the pace at that point."