Reuters on its most reent polling of economists re Japan.
Of 26 economists polled,
- 11 expect the central bank will unwind its ultra-loose policy between March and October
- 13, said the BOJ wouldn't scale back until 2024 or later
- two still expect the next move to be more easing of policy
Reuters add:
- The shift in expectations comes amid growing debate about whether one of the world's most dovish central banks can sustain its extremely low interest rates as the economy grapples with a tanking yen and surging imports costs.
- The most common means tipped by analysts for the BOJ to unwind stimulus would be a tweak to its forward guidance, according to 15 respondents. Widening the long-term yield cap range from 0.25% was chosen by nine while seven opted for raising the 10-year yield target from 0%. A separate question showed 22 of 25 economists see a smaller than 25% chance the BOJ modifies its yield-curve control (YCC) scheme or commits to a review of its policy framework before governor Haruhiko Kuroda's term ends in April. Such a change should wait until spring wage negotiations, said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities.
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Chatter about this has been swirling today, there' a summary here:
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The Bank of Japan December statement is due tomorrow (0230 to 0300 GMT on Tuesday, 20 December 2022). No change is expected:
- to maintain a -0.1% target for short-term rates
- and a 0% cap for the 10-year bond yield
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda
