Powell Jan 31 2024
  • Recent indicators suggest economy still growing at a solid pace
  • Consumer spending remains solid
  • GDP has slowed but private domestic final purchases still growing at same pace as H2 2023
  • Labor market has come into better balance but April and May jobs data still strong
  • Unemployment rate ticked up but remains low
  • A broad set of indicators suggest we've returned to where jobs market as on the eve of the pandemic, relatively tight but not overheated
  • Inflation has eased notably
  • More-recent readings on inflation have eased somewhat

Reactions to these headlines have been nearly nil, so far.

  • Repeats that Fed will need greater confidence in inflation to cut rates, though most-recent numbers have showed modest further progress
  • Will need to see more good data to bolster confidence on inflation

There was a bit of USD buying on this.

  • Policy is well positioned
  • We will continue to make decisions meeting by meeting