- Inflation is much too high
- Business fixed investment looks to have declined in Q2
- Labor market is extremely tight
- Wage growth is elevated
- Price pressures are broad
- Although prices for some commodities have turned down, earlier surge has boosted prices and inflation pressure
- There is still additional upward pressure on inflation
- We're highly attentive to inflation risks
- We are looking for compelling evidence of inflation coming down
- The pace of hikes will continue to depend on incoming data and evolving outlook
- Another unusually large increase could be appropriate but it's dependent on data between now and then
- Inflation has surprised to the upside in the past year so we will need to be nimble
- There's some anecdotal evidence it's getting a bit easier to find workers
- Employment cost index on Friday will be important indicator
- We want to see demand running below potential for a sustained period
- Will watch PCE and CPI but think PCE is the best measure of inflation
- We need to see inflation coming down
- Says he doesn't know what GDP will be tomorrow, hasn't seen it. Notes that advance release is revised multiple times
- Notes that breakevens have come down
- I don't think I would do Sept 2020-style forward guidance again
The market doesn't like the tone so far. Stocks are giving back some gains and the dollar is higher.
The bolded line is key so far, it sounds like they don't want to do 75 but will if the data is strong and inflation surprises.The tone on the bolded comment was clearer than the words.
Another key line:
"These rate hikes have been large, and they’ve come quickly. And it’s likely that their full effect has not been felt by the economy so there’s probably some significant additional tightening in the pipeline."
