- Far too early to declare a soft landing
- I have always felt there was a possibility economy would avoid recession
- There's always a possibility of recession next year
- Little basis for thinking there's a recession now
- There was a general expectation that rate cuts will be a topic of conversation going forward
The moves in the market has been huge. USD/JPY is down 225 pips on the day now and 2-year yields down 25 bps. This might be the last chance to get 4% 10-years, which is wild given that they were above 5% just six weeks ago.
More:
- We are pleased with progress but need to see further progress on inflation
- Fair to say that there is a lot of uncertainty
- There is a back-and-forth with market pricing
- In the long run, it's important that market conditions become aligned with policy
- People will have different forecasts on economy
- We're still well above 3% on core PCE
