- A reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as our next meeting
- If we were to see inflation moving down quickly or more-or-less in-line with expectations then I would think a rate cut could be on the table in Sept
- If inflation were to prove stickier, then we would weigh that along with other things
- It won't just be one thing, it's going to be the balance of risks
- It's just a question of seeing more good data
- I can imagine everything from zero to 'several' rate cuts this year
- Path ahead is going to depend on the economy
- Data in labor market shows a gradual normalization
- We don't think of the labor market as it is currently as a likely source of inflation pressures
- There could be seasonality in inflation data so that's why we look at 12 month inflation, which is at 2.5%
- Inflation data now is so much better than a year ago
- We're balancing the risks of going too early with going too late
- We do look at private demand extra carefully (vs gov't)
- Strong majority supported not moving today
- The lags of monetary policy are showing up
- The picture is not one of a slowing or really bad economy
- The chances of a hard landing are 'low'
"The broad sense of the committee is the economy is moving closer to the point at which it will be appropriate to reduce our policy rate. In that we will be data dependent, but not data point dependent," he said.
Market pricing for cuts has moved much in September or a year from now.
