Preview of the ECB monetary policy meeting - "why not end QE and raise rates in June?"

ECB statement is due at 1145 GMT, Lagarde's press conference follows at 1230 GMT.

Earlier previews:

• Preview of the ECB monetary policy meeting - statement then Lagarde speaking 09 June 2022
• Preview of the ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday, 9 June 2022 - waiting for July

Snippet from Société Générale:

• The June ECB meeting should ... signalling an end to net APP purchases by early July (or end June) and a rate hike in July.
• We wonder though: if there was sufficient conviction to signal rate hikes already in early May, why not end QE and raise rates in June? With inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term expectations above 2.2% since early March and market rate expectations well-ahead, why the foot-dragging?
• Clearly, forward guidance is a difficult habit to shake, reflecting fears of adverse market reactions, but it now seems to be a hindrance to data-dependency and timely action. With the PMIs holding up well in May and inflation next week expected to break new records (7.9%), the outlook may soon demand more action. A discussion on 50 bp hikes and QT, for which there is a clear need for early signalling, seems all but premature.
• The risk of lasting indirect and second-round inflation effects is now so high that it threatens to de-anchor inflation expectations and the ECB’s credibility. This holds true even if growth turns out weaker than expected over the coming quarters.
• Allowing a gradual reduction in the APP reinvestments could thus help anchor expectations and reduce the need for steeper rate hikes. We expect little help from the upcoming bank TLTRO repayments (around €200bn in June and €450bn over the coming year) and believe a new (limited) TLTRO will be needed in 2023 to smoothen the run-down. A too reactive ECB thus risks higher inflation expectations and more aggressive rate hikes later.

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This is a helpful preview but the despairing of a central bank being, and staying, well behind the curve, stands out.