The European Central Bank rate hike is expected on Thursday 21 July 2022
- announcement is due at 1215 GMT (note the new scheduled times)
- press conference follows at 1245 GMT
Earlier:
The rate hike due from the European Central Bank this week is inconsequential
- Goldman Sachs preview a rate hike from the European Central Bank
- Newsquawk Week Ahead - Highlights: ECB, BoJ, UK/CA/NZ inflation data, UK debates
- ECB to signal end of an era this week; Expect 25bp but more is not unthinkable - BofA
Adding in a couple more snippets.
This via Société Générale:
- First rate hike in 11 years (25 bps) to be announced.
- Anti-fragmentation mechanism is to be launched, to support vulnerable countries.
- While downside risks to growth have increased, for now, the guidance for a possible 50 bps hike in September is likely to remain in place, partly linked to the fact that the inflation forecast will need to be revised up again in September, at least with regard to the short-term. No new staff forecasts will be presented, but an updated assessment is likely to point to high uncertainty, in particular over the energy supply situation. Risks to inflation remain to the upside, while risks to growth remain to the downside.
Deutsche:
- The ECB meeting will likely deliver a 25 bps hike, the first rate increase since 2011.
- Our updated call retains the 2% terminal rate forecast but the hiking cycle is expected to be split. The first phase has hikes of 25 bps, 50 bps, 50 bps and 25 bps in July, September, October and December. By end-2022, the deposit rate will be 1%, helping to balance inflation and growth risks before the anticipated recession forces a pause.
- The second phase in H1 2024 is now expected to have four 25 bps hikes and push rates into moderately above neutral territory.
