The probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has fallen.
This is not due to the market thinking the Fed won't cut, but because the chance of a 50-basis point cut has entered the conversation in a big way. Deteriorating economic data is driving speculation of fifty basis points.
I don't think its much of a call to say 50bp ain't gonna happen, but it ain't.
Via FedWatch:
