The Reserve Bank of Australia statement is due at 0430 GMT / 0030 US Eastern time / 1430 Sydney time.
ANZ see an on hold decision:
- While we don’t expect the Board to explicitly discuss a rate hike, the communication on Tuesday will be more hawkish than March
- We continue to see the first rate cut of a shallow easing cycle in November although, as we noted following the CPI , there is a risk this gets pushed into next year.
NAB is also expecting the RBA remain on hold:
- Low unemployment and hot inflation should see a tilt back towards a tightening bias after what many interpreted was a neutral bias at the March meeting
- Soft activity growth and a tighter for longer forecast assumption are some offset for the RBA’s inflation forecasts, but the reluctant hikers are once again challenged by the data.
Earlier previews:
- RBA meeting - preview - Cash rate to remain unchanged
- Central banks are still on the agenda this week
- Australia- inflation a bit higher than expected, RBA on hold
Outlier call for a rate hike:
- Capital Economics are forecasting a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike
- RBA meet this week - "History suggests a rate increase is plausible"
The current cash rate is 4.35%, holding above the inflation rate to try to drive CPI towards the 2 to 3% band, with 2.5% and agreed target between the Bank and government.
