Minutes of the monetary policy meetings of the Reserve Bank Board are published two weeks after each meeting.
Headlines via Reuters:
- Board considered a hike of 25bp or 50bp, a pause was not an option
- Arguments in favour of both options but the board agreed case for 25bp was stronger
- Households facing tighter budgets and falling real incomes argued for 25bps
- Monthly meetings allowed for frequent adjustments, rates had already risen substantially
- Pattern of upward surprises on inflation , wages argued for 50bp move
- Longer inflation stayed high, the greater the risk of price-wage spiral
- Board agreed further rate increases would likely be needed over the months ahead
- Board noted inflation forecasts based on the technical assumption of 3.75% cash rate
- Board noted cash rate was still lower than in many other developed nations
- Data suggested more breadth and persistence in inflation than expected
- Board will do what is necessary to return inflation to target
- Australia benefiting from strong terms of trade, large household savings buffers
- Australia to benefit more from China reopening than a number of other countries
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The February 2023 monetary policy decision was a +25bp rate hike. And the statement from Governor Lowe accompanying the decision tilted more hawkish, firming up expectations of further hikes to come.
Since the decision we've had extensive public remarks from Lowe, links can found in these posts
- ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD carried on higher
- ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD up, region’s equities lower
The long story short on Lowe's extensive remarks over two separate testimonies to parliament is that there are further rate hikes to come.
The RBA rate hike cycle so far: