RBA meeting next week - preview - to leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35%

Reuters poll of economists on what they expect from the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on September 24:

• all 45 surveyed expect the cash rate to remain at 4.35%
• 40 expect that rate to persist through 2024
• the median expectation is for a 25bp rate cut in Q1 of 2025

Reasoning is, in a nutshell, that while inflation slowed to 3.5% in July its still above the top of the RBA's 2 - 3% target band. Add in the strong jobs market.

Among Australia's biggest 4 banks, ANZ, NAB, and Westpac predict rates will stay unchanged this year. CBA expects one cut before year-end:

• CBA shifts expected RBA rate cut timing to December 2024 (from November)

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I posted earlier on the likelihood of inflation falling soon:

• Australia CPI preview - CBA expect "Headline inflation in August back within RBA’s target"
• Australian August Monthly CPI preview - Westpac expect 2.7% y/y for the monthly read

And support for AUD:

• AUD/USD support: RBA on hold with strong jobs market, sticky CPI; Fed policy divergence

RBA dates ahead