RBA preview: "much higher-than-expected inflation means (rate hike) is firmly in the bag"

ING on the Reserve Bank of Australia statement due today, a +25bp rate hike is expected:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will almost certainly raise the cash rate a further 25bp to 3.35% later today. The recent run of much higher-than-expected inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term means that today’s decision is firmly in the bag. Larger hikes do not seem probable, though the inflation story does likely keep the RBA hiking for longer than previously thought. We now see the cash rate rising to 4.1% before it peaks.

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RBA statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time,

• which is 0330 GMT
• and 10.30pm US ET

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Earlier previews here:

RBA rate hike expected today - preview

• RBA meet February 7 - preview. Poll finds 30 of 31 analysts expect a 25bp rate hike.
• Deutsche Bank forecast 25bp rate hikes from the RBA in February, March, May and August
• CBA forecast one more 25bp RBA rate hike, terminal rate of 3.35% (there's a 'but' though)

• RBA meet on February 7 - preview - 25bp rate hike cemented in, then another in March
• RBA "Shadow Board" recommends a +25bp interest rate rise on February 7

• Remember: RBA rate decision in less than 6 hour

• Citi preview the RBA decision: "risks are tilted hawkish post the CPI beat in January"

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ING say its in the bag. I say it's a no brainer. ING is more polite than me.

If you are tipping no rate hike, what part of

• runaway inflation,
• the lowest unemployment rate for half a century,
• and a negative real cash rate

do you not understand?

(If your argument is the RBA is relying on its forecasts (that inflation will fall) and not on data, forecasts that have proved woefully inept in the past but still they rely on them, then I concede the point).