The inflation data earlier today has made a November 7 rate hike very likely from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Australian Q3 2023 Headline CPI +1.2% q/q (vs. 1.1% expected)
- Australia - market is rapidly pricing in a November rate hike after surging inflation data
- ANZ forecasts a 25bp RBA interest rate hike on November 7 (previous forecast was December)
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia forecast a 25bp RBA rate hike on November 7
+25bp in November seems a done deal to me. A pause again seems very unlikely given the forthright comment in the latest RBA minutes:
- “the Board has a low tolerance for a slower return of inflation to target than currently expected"
And how hawkish new Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock has sounded. Bullock gets another go on the microphone tomorrow BTW:
Could it be +50bp in November? Or +25 then another +25 at the December (5th) meeting? Given the RBA response to rising inflation, i.e. behind the curve for much of the way and appearing to have dropped back again, I am going with +25 in November and then we wait for February. The nagging doubt at the back of my mind is the hawkish Bullock though.
I've posted this before but there has been a big change in RBA meeting dates announced for 2024. Instead of 11 meetings a year the Bank will now meet 8 times only (Fibonacci folks will nod sagely here ;-) ).
The dates ahead are:
- November 7
- December 5
then into 2024:
- 5–6 February
- 18–19 March
- 6–7 May
- 17–18 June
- 5–6 August
- 23–24 September
- 4–5 November
- 9–10 December
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock RBA 23 October 2023.
