RBA Statement revises forecasts for core inflation higher

Reserve Bank of Australia's Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP)

Summary Headlines via Reuters, bolding is mine:

• Board's priority is to return inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term to target
• Board expects further increases in interest rates will be needed
• Board mindful of rise in interest rates already made, policy acts with a lag
• Considerable uncertainty about outlook and level of rates needed to meet objectives
• Inflation likely to have peaked at end of 2022, but labour and service costs rising
• Domestically sourced inflation, wages growth both picking up
• Liaison suggests firms expect wage growth to stabilise around 4% in coming quarters
• Closely watching how quickly falls in global goods prices passed on by local business
• RBA revises up forecasts for core inflation, wage growth and GDP, unemployment outlook little changed
• Trimmed mean CPI seen at 4.3% y/y end 2023. 3.1% end 2024, 2.9% June 2025
• CPI seen at 4.8% y/y end 2023, 3.2% end 2024, 3.0% June 2025
• GDP seen at 1.6% y/y end 2023, 1.6% end 2024, 1.7% June 2025
• Wage growth seen at 4.2% y/y end 2023, 4.0% end 2024, 3.8% June 2025
• Unemployment seen at 3.8% end 2023, 4.3% end 2024, 4.4% June 2025
• Forecasts based on technical assumption cash rate will peak at 3.75%, ease to 3% by June 2025
• Forecast population growth revised higher to annual 1.5% due to faster migration
• Risks to global economy have abated in recent months as China reopens

More:

• headline CPI is forecast at 6.7% by June 2023, up from the RBA's previous forecast of 6.3%
• trimmed mean CPI forecast is at 6.2% by the middle of this year, compared with a previous forecast of 5.4%

---

The SoMP outlines the Bank's evaluation of the domestic and global economies, as well as the prognosis for Australian inflation and output growth.

• There are also a few boxes released on certain topics of particular interest
• There is a SoMP released four times a year

----

This (below) is the path of RBA rate hikes so far in this cycle: