The Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP).
Headlines via Reuters:
- Some further tightening may be required
- Board considered raising rates at August meeting, decided stronger case was to hold steady
- Policy has been tightened significantly, full impact has yet to be felt
- Board mindful of lags in policy, painful financial squeeze on some households
- Board keen to preserve gains made in labour market
- Tightening could provide some further insurance against upside inflation risks
RBA trims GDP growth and inflation forecasts for end 2023, most others little changed
- Forecasts GDP end 2023 0.9%, end 2024 1.6%, end 2025 2.3%
- Forecasts CPI at end 2023 4.1%, end 2024 3.3%, end 2025 2.8%
- Forecasts unemployment end 2023 3.9%, end 2024 4.4%, end 2025 4.5%,
Full text is here:
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What's the SoMP?
The RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy:
- It outlines the bank's views on domestic and international economic conditions.
- also provides an analysis of the bank's policy decisions and an outlook for inflation and output growth.
- published quarterly
- It typically includes:
- An overview of the global and domestic economic situation, which incorporates various factors such as growth, inflation, employment, and monetary and fiscal policies of key countries.
- Information about financial markets, which details changes in asset prices, exchange rates, and monetary policy settings worldwide.
- Domestic economic conditions, which provides a comprehensive analysis of key indicators including GDP, consumer spending, business investments, the labor market, and housing market.
- Forecasts for domestic economic activity and inflation, typically for a period of two years ahead. And an assessment of the balance of risks surrounding these forecasts.
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The hiking cycle began in May 2022 and there are thoughts it may be complete. Some are still tipping another hike though, likely in November.
