Hunter is speaking at the Citi Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference, Sydney
Hunter says the Reserve Bank of Australia is not concerned inflation expectations getting de-anchored in the near-term
- policymakers remained alert to such a risk
- households appear to have looked through the recent spike in inflation more than the central bank might have expected
- relationship between current wage expectations and inflation expectations is relatively weak
More:
- "we’re not currently concerned that expectations could become de-anchored in the near term,"
- "But we do think it's important that we track how they’re evolving and that we understand how expectations are formed, so we can monitor whether there are any signs of this risk materialising in the future."
Full text:
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I've posted before on inflation expectations:
A concern for central banks is to keep inflation expectations anchored. In a nutshell:
- The argument is that inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling. For example during times of increasing inflation - people see inflation rising so they tend to buy more quickly, thus prompting prices to rise faster. People expect faster inflation (i.e. its 'unanchored' ... rising quickly)
- On the flipside, if inflation is either very low or in deflation (i.e. general falling prices), people hold off purchasing 'cause there is no rush if prices are falling, and again the argument is this behaviour can feed on itself and grow as a problem. People expect falling prices to fall harder ('unanchored').
The RBA has a much, much more detailed look at inflation expectations and in particular its impact on fixed interest markets, link here. Even just checking out the introduction to the paper gives good educational value.
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As a ps. Is it unanchored or deanchored?
