Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia
- Labour market still tight relative to full employment
- Labour market has moved towards better balance since late 2022
- Easing in labour market similar to past mild downturns
- Some slowing in labour demand to occur via drop in average hours
- Expect employment to continue to rise but at slower pace than population
- Space for vacancies to fall further without sharp rise in unemployment
- Surprised by strength in participation rate, including vs peer economies
- Outlook is highly uncertain, our forecasts likely to be wrong in some way
Hunter also noted
- high rates are slowing demand in what should a mild economic downturn
- there were signs that the easing in the labour market had started to flow through to wage growth, which was likely past its peak and set to slow further
Full text is here:
Hunt
---
Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate vs. inflation rate:
