Via KiwiBank on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting coming up on November 23.
Summary:
- The war on inflation is ongoing. And the RBNZ is likely to up the ante next week. We expect to see an outsized 75bp hike to 4.25%. And they won’t stop there. We’re likely to see a 5% cash rate next year.
- Both inflation and inflation expectations have surprised on the upside since the RBNZ’s last MPS in August. The RBNZ’s next MPS is not until February. So they’ll want to get conditions right at this juncture.
- The effects of central bank tightening are being felt around the world. Global growth is slowing, and we may have seen the peak in inflation, here and abroad. Kiwi households are feeling the pain, now, as they roll off exceptionally low interest rates. The substantial increase in interest expense comes at a time of “crisis” for living costs and falling house prices. We expect to see an RBNZ “pivot” in February.
From the Reserve Bank of New Zealand website, dates ahead:
