RBNZ policy decision due today - surprise tightening to 5.75% is a risk (but a small one)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy announcement is due at 0100 GMT, 2100 US Eastern time.

I posted a preview from ANZ earlier:

• ANZ expect a more hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand next week

Indeed, a 'hawkish hold' is widely expected.

KiwiBank:

• We’re expecting déjà vu, with no change in policy nor tone from the August update.
• The cash rate is expected to be left untouched (5.50%) and the statement will reaffirm the need to keep rates restrictive.
• The RBNZ’s job: stabilise inflation.

Westpac:

• We think the RBNZ will keep the OCR at 5.50% at its October review.
• We expect the RBNZ to retain the tightening bias expressed in the August Statement and will aim to retain maximum flexibility to tighten (or not) in November should data warrant.
• A surprise tightening to 5.75% is a risk, but we think no more than a 10-20% chance.

Also:

• RBNZ policy meeting this week - "Shadow Board" recommend cash rate hold at 5.5%