Reminder, the longer we wait for the BOJ statement the more likely there's been a tweak

You most likely already know that the Bank of Japan statement is not set for a specific time.

Based on experience its reasonable to expect it sometime in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window (10.30 - 11.30pm US Eastern time).

The later it gets in that window, or stretching later than 0330 they more likely it is that there has been some change made to policy (on the reasoning that there was more discussion/debate).

The speculation for this meeting is that some tweak to yield curve control is possible, for example:

• Bank of Japan preview - DB says YCC tweak a 40% probability

The consensus it that it'll take longer than that though:

• October is now the month most cited as the likely timing for a BOJ policy change

I dunno, the volatility move was unusual:

• More on USD/JPY volatility surge - protection being sought against a BOJ tweak surprise

Anyway, we are halfway through that 0230 - 0300 GMT time window now. Yen liquidity is thinning out as traders get nervous.