Reserve Bank of Australia meeting coming up on February 7: "to hike the cash rate by 25bp"

The Judo Bank / Market Australia flash PMI data is here:

Australian January preliminary PMI, manufacturing 49.8 (prior 50.2)

Analysis in that report is from Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Advisor at Judo Bank. Hogan is a very well respected economist in Australia and is worth paying attention to.

From the report, his quick preview of what's coming up from the RBA:

• "Inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term pressures may abate somewhat but the risk for
  the RBA is that inflation remains stubbornly high well into
  2023. This could maintain upward pressure on inflation
  expectations and wages growth. On this basis it seems
  premature for the RBA to pause the current tightening
  cycle. Australian interest rates are low by any standard
  except that of the last few years. Real interest rates remain
  deeply negative leaving monetary policy well below most
  long-term concepts of ‘neutral’. Australian interest rates
  are well below those in other advanced economies facing
  similar inflation risks.
• "We expect the RBA to hike the cash rate by 25bp in each
  of February and March before an extended pause. Further
  rate hikes may be required later in 2023 if the economy
  and inflation prove more resilient than current consensus
  forecasts suggest."

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I don't always agree with the analysis I see but I do with this.

As I have said many times before in my own thoughts of what the RBA will do in February, a hike is the only reasonable thing to do given this, from the front page of the RBA website:

The RBA is forecasting inflation to fall, and I've seen opinion that this is the basis for the Bank pausing now, i.e. no need for a hike in February. I disagree and, if any of the folks at the RBA are reading this, please recall how poor the bank's forecasts usually are. Use the data, don't try to second guess it.