The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is on Tuesday June 6:
- statement is due at 2.30 pm Sydney time, which is 0430 GMT and 12.30am US Eastern time
This via Commonwealth Bank of Australia on what they expect:
- We expect the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold at 3.85% at the June Board meeting. But we consider the meeting now ‘ live ’
- We ascribe a 70 % chance to no change and a 30 % probability to a 25bp rate increase to 4.10 % (we consider the risk of any other move immaterial).
- The economic data released since the May Board meeting does not support another rate hike in June. Indeed key economic data that the RBA forecast has come in softer than their most recent updated forecasts.
- The 2023 Fair Work Commission decision to increase both the minimum and award wages by 5.75% is broadly in line with what we think the RBA had pencilled in to their wages growth forecasts.
- We believe the domestic economy is now showing sufficient signs of slowing and we expect the RBA Board will judge that leaving the cash rate on hold is the appropriate policy move in June .
- The Board can resume increasing the cash rate in July or August following a pause in June if the economic data makes the case (note that our base case is for 3.85% to be the peak in the cash rate , but the near-term risk sits with another hike).
Earlier previews:
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The RBA rate rise cycle so far:
