What to expect from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday, summary comments via Commonwealth Bank of Australia
- We expect the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35%
- We ascribe a 90% chance to no change and a 10% probability to a 25bp increase (we consider the risk of any other move to be immaterial).
- The RBA Board is now data dependent and the economic data released since the November Board meeting does not support another rate increase in December.
- We expect the RBA to retain their tightening bias and expect no changes to current forward guidance.
- A no change decision is anticipated to be accompanied by the line, “whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks.”
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The Reserve Bank of Australia meet tomorrow, the statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday, 5 December:
- 0330 GMT and 2230 US Eastern time on Monday, 4 December 2023
