The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting is next week, May 22. Statement due at 2pm New Zealand time, which is 0200 GMT and 2200 US Eastern time on Tuesday.
ANZ have previewed the meeting, in summary:
- We expect the RBNZ to leave the OCR at 5.5% next week, reiterating that they remain in watch-worry-wait mode and that “interest rates need to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period”.
- The data since the February MPS speaks to a clearly slowing economy, but also sticky inflation, with the Q1 forecast miss on non-tradable inflation the fourth in a row and the biggest yet. The RBNZ could take a glass-half-empty or glass-half-full view of things. But overall, we think confirmation that the economy is cooling as the Committee expects and requires will win the day. The data clearly signals a meaningful fall in domestic inflation ahead, with spare capacity steadily opening up.
- That said, we don’t expect they’ll be in any hurry to signal imminent cuts to an impatient market.
The next big immediate focus for the New Zealand dollar is the US CPI report on Wednesday, 15 May 2024.
