- 24 of 26 economists expect policy rate to stay unchanged this week at -0.75%
- 19 of 26 economists expect policy rate to be -0.50% or higher in September
Some commentary from the poll:
"The SNB is probably not willing to wait too long to start normalising its monetary policy stance. After all, the window of opportunity to do so could close amid substantial geopolitical and economic risks, such as a further cooling of the global economy, which would hurt the export-dependent Swiss economy." - Andreas Rees, UniCredit
"The SNB will mirror the ECB by keeping its policy settings unchanged once again at its June meeting. But with a July rate hike by Eurozone policymakers now locked in, the era of policy stasis in Switzerland is drawing to a close, and an unscheduled rate rise by the SNB now seems the most likely outcome." - David Oxley, Capital Economics
Although the SNB pivot may be one that markets are going to be expecting, it still could be a real mess when the time comes. Or perhaps, it already is.