Société Générale tip a +50bp rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia today

Consensus is at +25bp.

Earlier previews:

• AUD traders note - the RBA meet Tuesday, 1 November 2022, a +25bp rate hike is expected
• AUD: RBA to stick to 25bps hike: market implications - BofA

Also, please note:

• AUD traders heads up: its a partial holiday in Australia today (unofficial full holiday)

Via a Société Générale note:

• We expect the RBA to increase the cash rate target from 2.60% to 3.10%, which means that it is likely to return to the 50 bps pace of tightening implemented from June to September after a one-off 25 bps hike in October.
• The upside surprises in the 3Q22 inflation data should be the main driver for the likely 50 bps hike, overwhelming other factors like the slowdown in employment and the stabilisation of global financial market conditions.
• The policy statement should continue to say that the RBA is resolute in its determination to return inflation to target while keeping the economy on an even keel.
• Meanwhile, we stick to our ‘terminal’ policy rate forecast of 3.60% at this juncture.

---

The statement is due at 0330 GMT on Tuesday, 1 November 2022. The RBA hike cycle so far: